Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-02T00:13:45

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16, is Background to Moderate, having now declined after the previous enhancement. This is likely to drop out to background if any connection to CH54 occurs day 1 (02 Oct), or due to any connection to CH55 either late day 2 or more likely day 3 (03-04 Oct). A recovery in flux is then possible later day 3 or day 4 (04-05 Oct) to mainly Moderate with a chance of peaking at High during diurnal maximum.

The associated 24 fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with a generally declining trend. This is in agreement with REFM although the model is currently overestimating the current fluence. As any coronal hole enhancement eases day 3 onward, there is a chance of fluence increasing again, but is currently expected to remain below Active.