Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-10-01T00:28:40

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 is expected to vary between background and diurnally high levels on day 1 (01 Oct) and some of day 2 (02 Oct). Thereafter a more significant drop-out of electron flux is forecast to occur, related to the onset of any fast winds from CH54/+, however this is fairly low confidence with regards to timings. A positive response in electron flux is possible by day 4 (04 Oct), although could be short-lived as the fast wind of CH55/+ could again cause drop-out. 

The fluence is just below Active levels to start day 1 (01 Oct) and is expected to remain below throughout on a generally decreasing trend. REFM is likely too high for its expected fluence on day 1 (01 Oct), but appears to offer good guidance for the remainder of the forecast period.