Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-30T00:28:02

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 was initially Moderate on 29 Sep, but dropped out early in the UTC day due to a weak CME which arrived late on 28 Sep. Flux recovered to Moderate and then High through the second half of the UTC day on 29 Sep. A general downtrend in electron flux is expected in the coming days, becoming generally Moderate, but still occasionally high during diurnal maximum. These values are expected to persist until day 3 (02 Oct) when a further drop out is likely from the onset of any fast winds from CH54/+.  

The fluence is likely to rise just above Active levels on day 1 (30 Sep), but with a reducing day-on-day probability of exceeding the threshold. This is broadly supported by REFM, which currently has a declining trend.