Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-29T00:38:51

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 has been varying between Moderate to High. The high energy electron flux is likely to be at predominantly Moderate levels today and tomorrow, but briefly reaching High levels at the peak of the diurnal cycle, especially today. By day 3 (1st) mainly background levels are expected, followed by an increase in levels during day 4 (2nd) due to the arrival of a HSS from CH54.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated flux), as indicated by the Met Office REFM. However, instead of the steady trend that is currently shown by the REFM, a gradually decline is preferred over the next 3 days.