MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-26T00:08:17
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 has reduced to background levels following the arrival of the CME on the UTC evening of the 24 Sep. Further CME glancing blows may continue this trend, though confidence reduces later in the period with a chance or returning to high by Days 3 and 4 (28-29 Sep).
The associated 24 hour fluence is in a declining phase and will likely remain below the Active threshold until at least Day 4 (29 Sep), though any increase is low confidence. REFM is currently giving good guidance of the expected trend, remaining below Active throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-09-26T00:08:17 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |