Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-25T00:20:38

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 has been largely moderate, as enhanced electron levels at lower orbits expand outward to GEO. The CME arrival on 24 Sep has since reduced electron counts and is likely to continue to do so through day 1 and perhaps into day 2 (25/26 Sep). Further CME glancing blows may continue this trend, though confidence reduces later in the period with a chance or returning to high by day 4 (28 Sep).

The associated 24 hour fluence is in a declining phase and will likely remain below the Active threshold until at least day 4 (28 Sep), though any increase is low confidence. REFM is currently giving good guidance of the expected trend, remaining below Active throughout.