Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-24T00:26:23

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 has been largely moderate to high, as enhanced electron levels at lower orbits expand outward to GEO. This has potentially peaked on 23 Sep, although a further spell of High flux is likely on day 1 (24 Sep) ahead of any CME arrival that may occur. These CME arrivals are likely to drop out values to background for a time, before a recovery later in the period, most likely day 3 or day 4 (26-27 Sep) bringing the potential for Moderate to High flux by the end of the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence likely peaked on 23 Sep, just below the Active threshold. While further increases are possible day 1 or 2 (24-25 Sep) the fluence is expected to persist below Active due to the reduced flux from the potential CME arrivals. There is then a slight, but increasing chance of fluence rising day 3-4 (26-27 Sep). REFM is currently giving good guidance of the expected trend, remaining below Active, albeit underestimating the current observed value. This will become poor when, and if, any CME arrival occurs.