Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-23T00:28:37

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES16 has been on an a gradual increasing trend, albeit an erratic one, as enhanced electron levels at lower orbits expand outward to GEO. This is expected to continue day 1 (23 Sep), with Moderate to High levels expected. Any solar wind enhancement, either from the onset of fast winds from CH50/51 or the arrival of the first of any of the CMEs that are expected, will likely drop values out to background. This most likely if the fast CME expected early day 2 (24 Sep) arrives as anticipated. As any enhancement eases this will allow the observed flux to recover to Moderate to High levels later in the period, however this is low confidence due to the potential for further CME arrivals. 

The associated Electron fluence is expected to continue seeing a rising trend day 1, with a chance of reaching Active briefly, before falling again in response to any drop out in observed flux caused by the potential CME arrival(s). This is currently above the REFM forecast, which doesn't take account of the recent increased to electron populations at lower orbits. REFM will also be poor when any further CME arrivals occur.