Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-18T00:11:49

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux levels are currently at Background levels. An uncertain forecast during the period, with geomagnetic activity associated with the expected arrival of one or CMEs in the coming days likely to impede any prolonged rise. There remains a possibility coronal hole influences will increase solar wind speeds, which may result in increased electron flux levels though confidence is low.

The 24-hour fluence is currently below the active threshold, with current MOSWOC REFM model output likely providing reasonable guidance. Forecast is lower confidence however given uncertainties above, with an increasing risk of breaching the active threshold into the period.