Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-17T00:26:02

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux levels are currently at Normal Background levels. Thoughts are now changing as to the likely state of upcoming fast wind streams, perhaps most specifically that CH44/+ has very likely missed, and CH47/- may already be in course - this despite the slightly unusual observation that the solar wind speed decreased slightly in the wake of the CIR.

This unfortunately lowers confidence in forecast electron populations at GEO still further, although the net result is perhaps inconsequential as Active fluence is probably less likely. The rationale for this is that there is now a significant departure from the Strong fast wind from CH47's predecessor, with 450-500km/s instead observed, and even this is now waning. While a degree of recovery is now expected in electron populations, perhaps within the current UTC day, the expected arrival of CMEs in the coming days should repeatedly impede recovery and perhaps redistribute any limited gains from CH47 - if it is already present.

The overall forecast is therefore a Slight Chance on all days, rising slightly as the risk of CMEs fades.