Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-16T00:11:44

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux levels are now lower confidence than in recent guidance due to the presence of potentially Earth-directed CMEs, as well as the lack of any fully-fledged high speed stream from CH44/+. CH44/+ may now have missed Earth narrowly to the north of the ecliptic plane, with Earth perhaps instead skirting its associated southern-delimiting CIR.

Being nearer the solar equatorial plane, CH47/- is a more assured feature for connection, perhaps coming within the current UTC day. Even if Strong solar winds are seen as on last pass with this feature, the fact that these did not result in Active fluence perhaps increases confidence in their remaining below threshold, even with the complicating CME influence the UTC weekend.