Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-11T00:27:38

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-16 is expected to remain at background day 1 and into day 2 (11-12 Sep). Any coronal hole fast wind arrival from CH44/+ has the potential to increase electron flux through the Van Allen belts, and observed values at GEO are likely to increase later day 2 and day 3 (12-13), rising to Moderate, perhaps High at diurnal peak. However this rise is low confidence, with the potential for further solar wind enhancement to disrupt the belts, and leading to a drop out later day 3 or day 4 (13-14th). 

The associated 24-hour fluence will most likely remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. Confidence for this decreases day 3 and day 4, with a slight chance of rising above due to any fast wind enhancement on day 2 (11 Sep) from CH44/-. MOSWOC REFM is considered to be giving good guidance until the onset of any fast winds.