Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-10T00:13:05

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is likely to remain at background to moderate levels for much of this period, with significant enhancements to the electron belt looking unlikely. An increase in flux and fluence levels is possible towards the end of the period. However, there is also the potential for a CME arrival early on Day 2 (10 Sep) which may suppress electron levels once again.

The associated 24-hour fluence will most likely remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, but with  decreasing confidence with time. MOSWOC REFM is considered to be giving good guidance initially, however, confidence falls through the period given the possible arrival of a weak CME.