Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-09T00:13:44

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is likely to remain at background to moderate levels for the start of this period, with further enhancements to the electron belt perhaps occurring through the coming days should fast winds arrive from CH43/- and CH45/-. An increase in flux and fluence levels is therefore possible towards the end of the period. However, there is also the potential for a CME arrival late on Day 1 (09 Sep) into Day 2 (10 Sep) which may suppress electron levels once again.

The associated 24-hour fluence will most likely remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, but with greatly decreasing confidence with time. MOSWOC REFM is considered to be giving good guidance initially, however, confidence falls through the period given the possible arrival of a weak CME.