Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-06T00:18:12

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES16 is currently at Moderate levels after a brief period at High levels 05/1525-1720 UTC. Following the recent CME arrival, electron flux levels are expected to attenuate with diurnal oscillations remaining at Moderate levels. Further enhancements to the electron belt may occur should fast winds arrive from CH42/+ and CH43/-, with a recovery in flux and fluence levels towards the end of the period. However, confidence in detail is currently low for this given up to two incident fast winds, and the potential for a CME arrival.

The associated 24-hour fluence will most likely remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, but with greatly decreasing confidence with time. MOSWOC REFM is considered to be giving good guidance initially, however, confidence falls through the period given the possible presence of transients.