Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-05T00:29:29

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES16 is currently at background to Moderate levels. A recent response following the easing of the solar wind pressure following CH40/+ has not yet resulted in any High levels of flux being observed. Increased geomagnetic activity resulting from the onset of CH42/+ on day 1 (05 Sep) and perhaps also a glancing CME (from 01 Sep), should reduce electron counts once again. With numerous high-speed stream influences in the forecast, it should lead to periods of drop out, especially in the first few days, with a chance of enhancements to the electron flux towards the end of the period, perhaps reaching High levels, though confidence in detail is currently low for this.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected be below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, but with a very slight chance of exceeding this level on day 1 and day 4 (05 and 08 Sep).