Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-04T00:27:54

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES16 is currently at background to Moderate levels. A recent response following the easing of the solar wind pressure means that occasionally Moderate to High levels are likely on day 1 (04 Sep) ahead of the arrival of the fast wind from CH42/+. This however, is dependent on a lack of any further CME arrivals, with a slight chance of the CME from the 01 Sep arriving at GEO, that would suppress electron flux once more. 

With numerous high-speed stream influences in the forecast period, it should lead to periods of drop out, along with subsequent enhancements in the following days, however this detail currently remains very uncertain.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected be below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold day 1 (04 Sep), but with a chance of rising this level. MOSWOC REFM is likely to be poor, increasing fluence too quickly, as this doesn't take account of the forecast CME arrival(s). Fluence should drop on days 2 and 3 (05 and 06 Sep) given increased geomagnetic activity, but may increase again on day 4 (07 Sep) if pressure on the Van Allen belts reduces.