Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-03T00:29:50

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES16 is currently at Background to Moderate. Any CME arrival likely to increase electron populations throughout the Van Allen belts, but initially compressing them into lower orbits. As the solar wind pressure eases, mainly day 2 onward (04 Sep), flux will see an increasing chance of becoming Moderate to High. 

There is low confidence in this forecast, however as it is very dependent upon the strength of the anticipated CME arrival(s) day 1 (03 Aug). Any further coronal hole fast wind interactions later day 2 (04 Sep) onward could also lead to periods of drop out, along with subsequent enhancements, however this detail currently remains very uncertain.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected be below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold day 1 (03 Sep), but with an increasing risk of rising above day 2 (04 Sep). MOSWOC REFM is likely to be poor, increasing fluence too quickly, as this doesn't take account of the forecast CME arrival(s).