Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-09-01T00:11:49

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES16 is expected to remain at background to moderate levels until day 2 (02 Sep). The enhancement from coronal hole (CH40/+) may then result in some electron flux response, however due to the northern latitude of the coronal hole confidence is low on the strength of any connection and the subsequent flux increase. However, Moderate flux, perhaps briefly High, is possible. Furthermore, then arrival of a CME is now anticipated later day 2 or early day 3 (late 02 Sep or early 03 Sep), this will likely drop out flux to background levels, before recovering again later day 4 (04 Sep).

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout the period, with any slight rise likely to be modest and short-lived due to any CME arrival late on day 2 or early day 3 (02-03 Sep). This is supported by the Met Office REFM output.