MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-31T00:18:23
High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES16 is expected to remain at background to moderate levels for much of the period, given a lack of recent electron enhancement. A coronal hole (CH40/+) may see an enhancement of solar winds from Day 2 (01 Sep) which may see some electron flux response, but confidence is low due to the northern positioning of the coronal hole as to how much of an effect it will have.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, with any rise in fluence likely to be modest. This is supported by the Met Office REFM output, which currently appears to offer sensible advice.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-08-31T00:18:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |