MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-29T00:09:31
High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES16 is expected to remain at background to moderate levels for much of the period, given a lack of recent electron enhancement. A possible CME glancing blow on Day 2 (30 Aug) and any associated geomagnetic activity could also keep flux levels suppressed.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, with any rise in fluence likely to be modest. This is supported by REFM, which currently seems to be a reasonable guide.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-08-29T00:09:31 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |