MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-28T00:16:33
High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES16 persisted at mainly background levels, with a very subdued response to the recent HSS. A possible further HSS arrival during Day 1 (28 Aug) may bring a slight risk of enhancement into this period. However, given that this feature is now late and therefore likely weaker, along with a probable very limited geomagnetic response, any increase to the observed flux is expected to be limited. If there is a response, flux is expected to peak at moderate levels. In addition, a possible CME glancing blow on Day 3 (30 Aug) could also keep flux levels suppressed.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, with any rise in fluence likely to be modest. This is supported by REFM, which currently seems to be a reasonable guide.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-08-28T00:16:33 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |