MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-27T00:14:58
High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES16 persisted at mainly background levels, with only a subdued response to the recent high speed stream. A further fast wind arrival either day 1 (27 Aug) may bring a further enhancement. However, given the limited geomagnetic response anticipated, any increase to the observed flux expected to be rather limited, likely peaking at Moderate and only a slight chance of reaching High at diurnal maximum
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, but rising later the period in response to this enhancement. Below Active fluence is currently supported by REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-08-27T00:14:58 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |