Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-25T00:28:15

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES16 is currently Background to Moderate, but expected to rise in response to the current fast wind enhancement, perhaps more persistently Moderate later day 1 (25 Aug) and with a chance of peaking at High day 2 (26 Aug). A further fast wind enhancement either late day 2 or day 3 (27 Aug) from CH38/- will then likely lead to flux dropping out to background. The connection to this feature is expected to be more limited than the current fast wind, with flux potentially only recovering to Moderate later day 4 (28 Aug). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, but rising in response to the recent solar wind enhancement, before declining again later day 3 (27 Aug) onward due to any further HSS enhancement. REFM is likely to be poor guidance currently, as it has yet to account for the recent solar wind increase.