Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-24T00:13:57

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-16 is currently Moderate. Any HSS solar wind enhancement both near term and into days 3 and 4 (26-27 Aug) is likely drop out observed flux to background, but an increasing likelihood of returning to  Moderate, perhaps High levels into the period. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist below the Active level to start, with no significant enhancements expected. An increasing trend is expected day 2 (25 Aug) onwards, but with the risk of breaching the active level still low. MOSWOC REFM model currently looks to be providing reasonable guidance, pending the details of possible future HSS enhancement.