Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-23T00:08:45

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-16 is currently varying between Background and Moderate, due to recent fast wind arrival. However, due to the lack of notable geomagnetic activity with this enhancement, the influx of electrons into the Van Allen belts is currently expected to be limited, with peak flux persisting at Moderate, perhaps just briefly reaching High levels day 1 (23 Aug). Any further HSS solar wind enhancement day 1-2 (23-24 Aug) then likely drop out observed flux to background, before an  increase to Moderate, perhaps High levels days 3 and 4 (25-26 Aug), as solar winds ease. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist below the Active level to start, with no significant enhancements expected. An increasing trend is expected day 3 (25 Aug) onwards, with the risk of breaching the active level increasing but still low. MOSWOC REFM model currently looks to be providing reasonable guidance.