Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-22T00:32:29

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at Normal Background to Moderate levels, varying on a typical diurnal trend. A stronger recovery in electron flux at GEO is likely on Days 1 and 2 (22 and 23 August) to occasionally High levels as the current lack of significant geomagnetic activity coincides with a relaxation of the Van Allen Belts. Confidence in the forecast reduces later on Day 2 (23 August) with the forecast onset of a positive polarity CH39 that should reduce electron counts at GEO, continuing into Day 3 (24 August) should geomagnetic activity increase as anticipated. By Day 4 a tentative increase in electron flux is likely again.

MOSWOC REFM modelling does not account for current HSS enhancement in the forecast, and is currently not preferred. The associated 24-hour fluence will start below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), but with a probable upward trend in coming days giving a Chance of reaching the Active threshold on Day 2 (23 August) and a Slight Chance on Days 3 and 4 (24 and 25 August).