Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-17T00:14:44

In recent days the high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GOES16 has been varying between Normal Background and diurnal peaks of High (above 1000pfu). However, on the 15th and 16th August a diurnal peak of Moderate was observed and with the onset of two high-speed streams forecast on Day 1 (17th) any periods of High flux are considered very unlikely as electron counts at GEO are suppressed for a time. Confidence in the intervening time period is lower - due to the uncertain timing and duration of the fast winds from CH33/+ and CH35/-. However, flux levels are likely to rebound from day 2 (18th), possibly reaching High values once again. The corresponding fluence is therefore also likely to rise during the second half of the period, with a chance of exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu threshold) on days 3 and 4 (19th and 20th).