Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-15T00:24:33

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GOES-16 has been varying between background and diurnal peaks of high (above 1000 pfu). The arrival of the next fast wind on day 1 (15 Aug) will likely lead to flux dropping out, before a more persistent rise is expected later day 2 (16 Aug) and beyond. This may be tempered by any further fast wind arrival from CH35/+ around the same time, however this is low confidence.   

The associated fluence may approach the Active (1e8 integrated) threshold later day 2, but with an increasing likelihood through days 3 and 4. This is low confidence however. REFM is giving reasonable guidance to current conditions, however this will likely become poor once the arrival of the fast wind of CH33 occurs.