Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-14T00:27:18

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GOES-16 has been varying between background and diurnal peaks of high (above 1000 pfu). As solar winds have eased, the observed minimum value has tended upwards, resulting in the associated 24 hour fluence also having a gradual increasing trend. The arrival of the next fast wind on the day 1, or more likely day 2 (14-15 Aug) will lead to the flux dropping out, before a more persistent rise is expected day 3 (onward).  

The associated fluence is expected to approach the Active (1e8 integrated) threshold on day 1 (15 Aug), but most likely staying below, before falling day 2 (15 Aug) as a result of the flux dropping out with any HSS arrival. Day 3 and 4 will then see fluence rising again, with an increasing risk of reaching Active. This is low confidence however, with further solar wind enhancement possible day 3 (16 Aug). REFM is currently giving poor guidance with a decreasing trend indicated, however a rising or steady trend is considered most likely.