Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-13T00:11:16

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux has shown a slight day-on-day reduction in the last 24 hours in the prevailing relatively mild fast wind environment (from an unidentified source). Similar diurnal flux levels are expected in the near-term, with the next major change due to the CIR and CH33's arrival, probably within the UTC day of Monday 14 August. After the initial compression from the increased geomagnetic activity, there is a Chance of 24-hour integrated fluence rising to become Active at GEO, and although this is more likely to occur than on last pass given CH33's greater intensity, the window for this to occur is considered likely to be brief, as a second coronal hole may again compress the Van Allen belt and perhaps redistribute any gains to mitigate against large magnitude late-week rises in fluence.

MOSWOC REFM has hints of a rise in its forecast trend, as well as displaying the step-wise upward change from persistence, however given the detail of CH33 has changed, the onset and magnitude of this signalled increase is low confidence. REFM's 72-hour range does not yet have the scope to provide any information surrounding any second fast wind enhancement.