MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-12T00:14:20
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is expected to be mainly at Moderate levels, but showing a diurnal variation from Background to High, likely peaking just over 1000pfu each day. This is likely to be attenuated into the final day of the forecast period, however any rebound towards Active fluence is not expected until the middle of the coming UTC week at the earliest.
The associated fluence is expected to remain below the Active level, with REFM currently providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-08-12T00:14:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |