MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-10T12:04:37
There are now no expected geomagnetic inputs in the forecast (fast wind or CME-related). REFM's current forecast in maintaining fluence levels comfortably below Active is therefore accepted, on the proviso that the current behaviour of electrons at GEO is near a steady state from recent CME disturbances - certainly major rises now appear unlikely, although diurnal High flux is perhaps more realistic.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-08-10T12:04:37 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |