Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-10T00:14:33

The high energy electron flux (greater than 10 MeV) observed by GOES16 has shown a slight recovery over the past 48 hours, however with no further significant HSS expected, only a modest flux rise during the diurnal cycle is expected, and probably reaching the daily high flux threshold. Overall, the associated 24-hour integrated fluence is likely to stay below the Active level, albeit with a slightly rising trend. The Met Office REFM guidance is considered to be providing useful guidance with little overall change likely, although the fall indicated on Day 2 (11 Aug) is probably not likely.