Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-09T00:10:16

The high energy electron flux (greater than 10 MeV) observed by GOES16 showed a slight recovery in the 24-hour period, however with no fast winds expected, only a modest flux rise during the diurnal cycle is expected, with confidence remaining low.

Overall, the associated 24-hour integrated fluence is likely to stay below the Active level, with perhaps a peak Chance later this working week. Given the recent presence of CMEs and the possibility of further such enhancements, REFM is not considered to be able to provide useful guidance in this case, further lowering confidence.