Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-07T00:29:01

The high energy electron flux (greater than 10 MeV) observed by GOES16 is currently at background levels, with no enhancement at GEO currently observed from recent CME enhancements. Given the likely arrival of further CMEs during day 1 and 2 (07-08 Aug), albeit mostly glancing impacts, any increased flux is likely to be contained to lower orbits until solar wind pressure eases later day 2 into day 3 (08-09 Aug). Observed flux may then increase to become Moderate, perhaps High at times, although this is Low confidence.  

Overall, the associated 24 hour fluence is likely to stay below the Active level, however there is a slight chance of this rising above, day 3 (09 Aug) onward. REFM is currently giving a good guide, but is likely to be unreliable once any CME arrival occurs on day 1 (07 Aug).