Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-06T00:13:29

The high energy electron flux (greater than 10 MeV) observed by GOES16 is currently at background, but likely became enhanced at lower orbits with the recent CME arrival.  As any CME influence recedes day 1 into day 1 (6 Aug), flux is likely to see a rise. The extent and persistence of any such rise is very low confidence however, with the potential for further CME arrivals. These most likely on day 2 (7 Aug) with effect continuing into day 3 (8 Aug). Any such arrivals are likely to cause a drop out in observed flux, at least for the period of increased solar wind pressure, before flux potentially rises again as the CME influence recedes. A further complication to the forecast is the current slight proton enhancement, which has the potential to contaminate the observations. 

Overall, the associated 24 hour fluence is likely to stay below the Active level, however there is a chance of this rising above, mainly late day 1 or early day 2 (6-7 Aug), before any subsequent CME arrival. REFM is likely to be unreliable in this period, due to the potential CME arrivals.