MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-04T00:15:53
The high energy electron flux (greater than 10 MeV) is currently expected to remain at normal background to moderate levels through the period, as CME potential and the lack of significant high speed streams leading to suppressed flux values.
The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to remain below Active (1e8 total pfu). The Met Office REFM output is currently giving reasonable guidance for initial conditions, but confidence in the model falls as the period advances.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-08-04T00:15:53 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |