MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-03T00:12:27
The high energy electron flux (greater than 10 MeV) may have diurnal peaks at High (1000+ pfu) levels on Day 1 (3rd Aug), but is likely to drop out due to HSS or CME influence Days 2-4.
The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to remain below Active (1e8 total pfu) but with a slight chance of rising above, mainly on Day 2 (4th Aug) before coronal hole and potential further CME influence. The Met Office REFM output is currently giving a reasonable steer for initial conditions, but confidence in the model falls low as the period advances.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-08-03T00:12:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |