Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-02T00:11:49

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-16 is currently at background to moderate levels but is expected to show diurnal variation to peak at High levels over the next few days. A drop out to background levels of observed flux is likely to occur during either the transition into a speed of coronal hole fast winds either late Day 2 or Day 3 (03-04 Aug) or in association with potential glancing blows from CMEs late Day 3 (04 Aug) or early Day 4 (05 Aug).

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to remain below Active (1e8 total pfu) but with a slight chance of rising above, mainly on Day 2 (03 Aug) after recent CME enhancement, and before subsequent coronal hole and potential further CME influence. REFM is currently giving a reasonable steer for initial conditions, but confidence in the model falls low as the period advances.