Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-08-01T00:27:12

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-16 is currently Background to Moderate, and likely to drop out to background at GEO with the CME arrival on day 1 (01 Aug). As any subsequent solar wind pressure eases day 2 (02 Aug) flux observed at this level is expected to rise to Moderate, with a chance of reaching High, mainly at diurnal peak periods. The next drop out of any observed flux is likely to be with a transition into the fast winds of CH31 and a further northern disc coronal hole either late day 3 or day 4 (03-04 Aug), however this is currently low confidence.

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to remain below Active (1e8 total pfu) but with a slight chance of rising above, mainly on day 3 (03 Aug) before any subsequent enhancement from either of the low confidence coronal holes. REFM is currently giving a good guide to background conditions in the absence of any CME arrival, however will become less useful once this occurs on day 1 (01 Aug).