Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-31T00:08:33

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux reached moderate levels today, despite the increased solar wind pressure from the current HSS. As this continues to ease, there is a chance of flux briefly reaching high levels (above 1000 pfu) on Day 1 (31 Jul), before a drop out in observed flux becomes likely due to the anticipated CME arrival on Day 2 (01 Aug).  Flux then most probably rising again later in the period, again perhaps reaching high levels.

Despite likely periods of moderate to high flux, the associated 24 hour integrated fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of this period. The main chances of approaching this level will be late Day 1 or early Day 2, then again on Day 4 (03 Aug). MOSWOC REFM is likely to be providing poor guidance, as it won't be taking into account any CME influence.