MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-30T00:29:22
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to oscillate between background to moderate levels, with a slight risk of exceeding the high threshold through 30 and 31 Jul. This forecast is however uncertain, as the electron flux observations are subject to contamination from the ongoing proton storm. On 01 Aug and 02 Aug a CME arrival is forecast, which could suppress counts by distorting radiation belts away from observations at GEO.
Electron fluence values are on a steady trend, with a falling trend expected later in the period due to the potential CME effects.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2023-07-30T00:29:22 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |