Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-28T00:18:56

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels have recently begin to increase modestly during the diurnal peak, following the subsidence in activity associated with the CME that arrived on 25 Jul. However the G1 (Minor Storm) observed during the early UTC hours of the 26 July may have contributed to a little reduction in the quantity of electrons in the radiation belts.

The only feature likely to replenish them is CH28 but it is most likely too small and its associated HSS too weak to sustain a strong and constant feed of electrons. In other words, they may increase and reach high levels during the diurnal peak over the following days but the associated electron fluence is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.

The latest REFM output is considered to give good guidance on this occasion.