Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-27T00:08:39

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electrons reached moderate levels at the diurnal maximum. The recent CME arrival and possible HSS connection may be increasing the electron flux in the radiation belt, with the BAS radiation belt model suggesting an increase has taken place below GEO. As wind speeds wane during this period, an increase in electron flux is likely, perhaps sufficient to allow the electron counts at GEO to reach high levels.

Electron fluence is currently steady well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. If, as expected, electron flux increases through this period then fluence is also likely to follow a rising trend, with a chance of reaching Active later in the period. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting a rising trend just below Active, which seems like a reasonable guide, although confidence in the timing and magnitude of any rise is low.