Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-26T00:29:41

High energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) are at Background to Moderate levels. Recent CME arrival has the potential to charge the Van Allen Belts sufficiently to being more persistent Moderate, perhaps occasionally High flux at GEO, most likely once solar wind pressure eases day 2 onward (27 Jul), depending on any further CME enhancement. Confidence remains low however due to the potential for further enhancements, including the arrival of a weak coronal hole fast wind expected either day 3 or 4 (28-29 Jul). 

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, albeit with a rising trend due to any increased flux from the CME arrival. There is a slight chance that this may result in Active fluence (above the 1e8 total pfu threshold) by the end of day 2 (27 Jul). REFM is giving good guidance of expected fluence at first, however this currently doesn't take account of the recent CME arrival, so should be used with caution.