Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-24T00:11:03

High energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) are at mainly Normal Background levels in a modest fast solar wind environment. The forecast upcoming high speed stream from CH27 is likely to lead to a rise in flux levels, with a chance of exceeding the High (1e3pfu) threshold from day two, Tuesday 25 July.

24-hour electron fluence is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, although a rising trend is expected. MOSWOC REFM indicates this rising tendency, with the previous rotation eventually seeing narrow exceedence of Active, although due to the slightly damped response to CH26 on this rotation and CH27's diffuse appearance, on balance 24-hour fluence is felt to more likely trend slightly below last pass by midweek.

In addition to the above, any CME influence may dent 24-hour integrated fluence at GEO on day four.