Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-23T00:26:27

High energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) are at mainly background levels in a generally benign solar wind environment. Recent enhancements may have increased electron populations at lower orbits, but the BAS (British Antarctic Survey Radiation Belt Model (BAS-RBM) is not suggesting a significant increase in values at GEO orbit on 23 Jul, with rises later in the period subject to the strength of any high speed stream from the coronal hole connection. The high (1e3pfu) threshold is unlikely to be exceeded until 25 Jul.

24-hour electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, with no significant inputs expected through the period.