Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-22T00:14:54

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is now at background levels. The BAS radiation belt model suggests that some minor charging may have taken place in the radiation belts below GEO, however the recent arrival of a weak CME is likely to keep the flux suppressed in the short term. The flux will eventually rise and most likely reach high levels during the diurnal peak over the following days.  

A similar pattern was observed on the last rotation, where the flux was able to reach 3000pfu on most days. However, with a lack of significant coronal hole high speed stream this time round, confidence is much lower and although the fluence is expected to show a rising trend overall, the corresponding fluence may not be able to reach the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) before Day 3 or perhaps Day 4, especially if we consider how low it is currently. 

The REFM is not in favour of this scenario and suggests a level trend. However it doesn't take into account the recent arrival of the CME and may provide poor guidance.