Forecaster summary - Issued 2023-07-20T12:18:31

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been largely at Moderate levels in the past 24 hours, having apparently reached a steady state in the wake of the CME that arrived on 16 July. The forecast from here carries low confidence owing to CME influence, however there is a Chance of an eventual increase once initial geomagnetic activity subsides. This is perhaps less likely than shown in recent guidance, given the manifestly late CME due in the current UTC day which is therefore slower or of more glancing incidence.

As stated above, the relative lack of predictable fast wind streams and the dominance of a transient-peppered forecast means that REFM is not considered good guidance, or at least it has an incorrect rationale for a similar result.